Nuggets have no cushion if Nikola Jokic's slow start lasts, and the numbers show why
Through seven games Nikola Jokic has his weakest shooting in years, and Denver's bench and salary cap leave the Nuggets little room to cover for it.
Nikola Jokic's uneven start is now the main question hanging over the Denver Nuggets. A new analysis by Ben Golliver at ESPN argues that the roster around him has no room to absorb even a small drop-off. Through seven games, the three-time MVP is shooting 50.4% from the field, his lowest since 2017-18, and 21.9% from 3-point range, a career low. His 23.4 points per game are his fewest since 2019-20, and his 26.1 PER is the lowest since his rookie season.
Where his shots come from matters as much as how many go in. ESPN found that only 16% of Jokic's attempts have come at the rim, a career low, and about a quarter have come from beyond the arc. His free throw and offensive rebound rates are also down sharply. He is still the only player in the league averaging at least 23 points, nine rebounds and nine assists, but the efficiency behind those numbers has slipped. Denver's offense ranked 11th entering Thursday. The Nuggets have not finished outside the top 10 since Jokic was a rookie.
Golliver's bigger point is about how the team is built. Denver's bench ranks 28th in scoring and 23rd in net rating. ESPN reports that Aaron Gordon is not moving well after missing more than half of last season, Cam Johnson is still underperforming, and a second unit led by 37-year-old DeMar DeRozan is regularly getting outscored. The cap offers little help. Jamal Murray and Gordon are signed through 2028-29, Christian Braun's $125 million extension starts this season, and a Jokic extension next summer could be worth up to $360 million over five years. Denver has also already traded its first-round picks in 2027, 2029 and 2032. Coach David Adelman stood by his center after Monday's loss to Portland, calling it a six-game sample from one of the most efficient scorers ever and adding, "I'll die on that sword," according to ESPN.
Wednesday night gave Adelman some support. The Denver Gazette reported that Denver went back to feeding Jokic at the elbow instead of the perimeter. He went 13 of 18 inside the arc and finished with 32 points, 10 rebounds and 11 assists in three quarters of a 128-109 win over Toronto. The Nuggets won the third quarter 41-15, every starter scored in double figures, and Bryce Hopkins added 18 off the bench.
What it means for Saturday
Denver is 4-3, and ESPN notes the Nuggets are 0-3 against teams with winning records. The losses tell the story: an 84-96 defeat at Oklahoma City, a 20-point home loss to Golden State and an eight-point home loss to Portland. The wins came twice against New Orleans, once at Phoenix and against Toronto. Over seven games Denver has outscored opponents by just five points total, averaging 115.4 points and allowing 114.7. That is the profile of an average team.
The Nuggets face the Indiana Pacers on Saturday at Arena CDMX in Mexico City, which NBA.com lists as the league's 35th game in Mexico. The game airs on NBA TV. On a neutral floor and away from the Ball Arena crowd that booed them earlier this season, the question is whether the elbow-heavy approach from the Toronto game holds up. Another efficient night from Jokic would help shift the early-season story. If he slips back into the perimeter-heavy pattern of his first six games, the problems with the rest of the roster that ESPN laid out will be hard to miss.
