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Nuggets land in ESPN's 'pressure zone' as Jokic deal looms and roster options narrow
Bobby Marks puts Denver in his second danger tier, noting thin roster-building tools as Jokic heads toward a record extension in 2027.
The Denver Nuggets were almost left off the list. In his new ranking of 19 teams facing big decisions about their core, ESPN's Bobby Marks said he considered leaving Denver out because Nikola Jokic keeps saying he will re-sign in the 2027 offseason. He put them in Tier 2 anyway, which he calls "the pressure zone." His reasoning: a franchise with a three-time MVP that has not made it out of the second round in three straight seasons can't treat its situation as settled.
The money is easy to sum up. Jokic will be eligible for a five-year, $359.5 million contract, which Marks notes would be the largest in league history. The harder question is who plays next to him. Marks lists Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun, Zeke Nnaji, Spencer Jones and Trevon Brazile as the players under contract around Jokic. He also points out that Denver has no first-round pick in June. The two main ways to add talent are re-signing forward Cameron Johnson or using the $16 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception. With Denver $32 million under the first apron, Marks thinks the team probably can't do both.
That changes the frame for this season. The front office doesn't need to worry about Jokic leaving. The real constraint is how few tools it has to improve a roster that has stalled in May. Johnson's future in particular is now a real offseason decision, and how he performs over the coming months will shape it.
What it means for Monday at Houston
The salary questions can wait. Health is the problem right now. Denver is 5-3 and has won its last two at home, 114-102 over Indiana and 128-109 over Toronto. The Nuggets are 2-1 on the road, with wins at Phoenix and New Orleans and an 84-96 loss at Oklahoma City. Sports Illustrated reports that all five starters are listed as questionable for Monday's game in Houston. Jokic has a right elbow sprain, Murray a left shin contusion, Braun a calf contusion and illness, and Gordon and Johnson are listed for lower-body injury management. Sixth man DeMar DeRozan is questionable with back spasms, and Julian Strawther is out with a knee sprain. SI also notes that the Rockets are healthy after winning seven of their first eight before losing their last two.
The prices reflect that uncertainty. Houston is a clear favorite on this site's board, which covers 12 venues. Novig, one of those venues, has the Rockets at -292 and the Nuggets at +277 on the moneyline. On the spread, Novig lists Houston -8.5 at -108 and Denver +8.5 at +102. DraftKings has the most points for Denver anywhere, at +9.5 for -118. The total is close to 219.5 everywhere: Novig's number is 219.5, BetRivers has the over at 218.5 and FanDuel has the under at 220.5. Sportsbook hold runs from 3.5% to 5.6% on the moneyline and from 2.9% to 5.4% on the spread, so the venues differ more in margin than in their view of the game.
The gap is bigger than these two teams' records would suggest, and most of it comes down to the injury report. If Jokic and Murray play, Denver looks a lot better than an 8.5-point underdog. If they sit, Monday will show how much depth Denver has behind its core, which is the same question Marks is asking about next summer. Follow the season on the Nuggets team page.