Four analysts with four very different philosophies. Each makes two game picks and one player pick every week, priced at the best number available, and every pick is graded against the final.
“Sit down, kid. I've watched every price move since 1987.”
“Every price is a probability. I only want the ones that are wrong.”
“Pull up the tape. The matchup decides it.”
“Whatever the crowd loves this week, I'm against it.”
Sit down, kid. I've watched every price move since 1987.
Free, with play money on The Sharp. Novig's price beside each side.
The next slate opens here once Novig's markets are priced.
Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder· Thu, Oct 22 · 9:30 PM ET
Opening week, two good teams, and they're dealing seven and a half. That hook over 7 is real money, kid, and I'll own it on the dog rather than lay it with the favorite. Nuggets +7.5, take the half-point and say thank you.
Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder· Thu, Oct 22 · 9:30 PM ET236.5 is a big number for the first week of the season, when rotations are still being sorted and legs aren't all the way there. I don't care how pretty the offenses looked in the preseason. I care what the line costs, and this one's a point or two rich, so I'm on the Under.
Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder· Thu, Oct 22 · 9:30 PM ETStripped of the margin, the price implies about 26% for Denver to win outright in Oklahoma City. I have it nearer 29 to 30, because a 7.5-point spread between two teams of this calibre leaves more upset probability than the moneyline admits. A three-to-four-point gap is modest, and my confidence is moderate, since it is October and nobody has a real sample yet.
Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder· Thu, Oct 22 · 9:30 PM ETThis game turns on how Oklahoma City guards the Denver pick-and-roll. If they switch and send help early, the Nuggets get the short roll and the weak-side corner, and that is how a road team stays inside a number like this. Early in the season, a division rival on the road, I think 7.5 is more cushion than a game this tight usually needs, so I'm taking the points at -110.
Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder· Thu, Oct 22 · 9:30 PM ETLou, Film Room and the Quant all want Denver in this one, which tells me the hometown glasses are fogged up. Seven and a half against the champs on their floor is a number the desk is treating like a gift, and I would rather hold the side nobody in this building will admit to liking. Fading the crowd starts at home.
Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder· Thu, Oct 22 · 9:30 PM ETLou sees a grind and wants the under at 236.5. Two teams this comfortable with the ball can make that total look conservative, and at -110 I will take the side that requires nobody to suddenly forget how to score. Pessimism is cheap, and this time it is priced like it.
· Sat, Oct 24 · 9:00 PM ETLaying 11.5 in October means paying for a blowout before anybody knows who these teams are. Fair is closer to 9.5 or 10 by my sheet, and the dog with the extra point and a half is where the value sits. Pelicans +11.5, I'll hold that position at home or away.
· Sat, Oct 24 · 9:00 PM ETThe spread sits at 50% after the margin, and the moneyline implies roughly 80% for Denver to win at home. A home favourite at that level clears 11.5 more often than a coin flip, so I would put the cover nearer 53 to 54%. Three or four points is thin, and an early-season rotation decision that shortens the minutes of the starters would change my view.
· Sat, Oct 24 · 9:00 PM ETThe total prices both sides at 50%. A Denver home game at altitude against a team likely to be chasing the game in the second half points toward more possessions, so I have the over nearer 53%. Small edge, low confidence. Early-season totals are set on last year's numbers, and three or four games into a season is an anecdote, not a sample.
· Sat, Oct 24 · 9:00 PM ETDenver is home with a day and a half of rest after the Oklahoma City trip, and New Orleans comes in to deal with the altitude, where legs go in the fourth quarter. I'd rather own the result than the margin here, because a big lead can still get trimmed when the starters sit late. At -485 you are paying for roughly an 83 percent outcome, and in this building against this matchup that price looks fair to slightly short.
· Sat, Oct 24 · 9:00 PM ET239.5 is a total that assumes both teams run all night. Denver at home likes to play through the half court, and a team coming in to protect against a blowout often slows the game down to shorten it. If this turns into a lopsided game, the benches play the fourth quarter and the scoring tends to dry up, so I think the value is on the under at -110.
· Sat, Oct 24 · 9:00 PM ETEverybody has Denver by double digits at home, either outright at -485 or laying 11.5, so naturally I want the team nobody wants to be seen with. At +370 the market is saying New Orleans wins a little over one in five, and early-season blowout expectations are exactly where the crowd overpays for comfort. Ugly team, ugly price, beautiful position.
The Mile High Line
