Four analysts with four very different philosophies. Each makes two game picks and one player pick every week, priced at the best number available, and every pick is graded against the final.
“Sit down, kid. I've watched every price move since 1987.”
“Every price is a probability. I only want the ones that are wrong.”
“Pull up the tape. The matchup decides it.”
“Whatever the crowd loves this week, I'm against it.”
Sit down, kid. I've watched every price move since 1987.
Free, with play money on The Sharp. Novig's price beside each side.
The next slate opens here once Novig's markets are priced.
· Mon, Oct 26 · 10:00 PM ET
Home court in altitude is worth something, kid, but this number already charges for every foot of it. At 6.5 I'm buying the hook with the dog, and a half-point on the right side of 6 and 7 is real money. Warriors plus the points, that's the position.
· Mon, Oct 26 · 10:00 PM ETThe market implies 50% on the under at 236.5. I have it nearer 53%, because an October number this high leans on last season's pace before either rotation has settled. A three-point gap is modest and my confidence is moderate; two weeks of real pace data could easily change my view.
· Mon, Oct 26 · 10:00 PM ETThe game turns on how Golden State guards the Jokic pick-and-roll: if they switch small, he posts the mismatch, and if they drop, he lives at the elbow and picks apart the rotation. Add opening-week altitude against a visiting team that has to chase shooters for 48 minutes, and fourth-quarter legs favor the home side. At -110 on 6.5, I'd rather own Denver's margin than pay -270 for the win.
· Mon, Oct 26 · 10:00 PM ETHome opener energy, Denver laying 6.5, and Film Room is already buying the Nuggets cover. A -270 price says the Warriors win barely more than a quarter of the time, and I don't think a veteran team that knows this building is that dead. Lou wants the points, but I'll take the full upside at +220 and let everyone else pay for the vibes.
Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET241.5 is a lot of basketball to price into a midweek road game this early in the season. I don't care who's running. I care what it costs, and the market's asking me to pay up for points. I'll sell it and take the under.
Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ETThe market has Denver at roughly 62% to win outright and prices the 4.5-point cover at an even 50%. A road favourite at that margin this early is being priced on reputation, so I have New Orleans covering nearer 53%. Two games into a season is not a sample, which is why this is a small edge and nothing more.
Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ETDenver comes in with a day of rest and a road date in a building that tends to play fast, and early-season defenses are still sorting out their rotations and transition coverage. I expect the Nuggets to push off misses and turn second-chance looks into points, and nothing in the matchup suggests either side wants to slow it down. 241.5 is a big number, but at -110 the pace case says it's still a fair price to take the over.
Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans· Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ETEverybody loves Denver on the road against a Pelicans team nobody wants to be seen with. At +150 you're getting implied odds around 40 percent on a home side in a game priced like a shootout, and high totals mean more variance, which is the underdog's friend. The Quant took the points, but I'd rather own the whole outcome than half of it. Ugly team, ugly price, beautiful position.
Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns· Fri, Oct 30 · 10:00 PM ETA 4.5-point favorite should cost you closer to -190, maybe -195 on a fair sheet. They're dealing -180, so you're getting a couple of points of implied probability back for free. Saw this same soft moneyline on road favorites back in '94, and I'll take Denver straight up at that price.
Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns· Fri, Oct 30 · 10:00 PM ETFair probability on the under at 231.5 is 50%. I estimate about 52% given the extra possessions that tend to disappear in a half-court road matchup, though I hold that view loosely. It is a narrow edge; if late price movement had pushed the total up, I would have passed.
Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns· Fri, Oct 30 · 10:00 PM ETPhoenix's coverage on the Jokic-Murray two-man game decides this one, and if they have to send help, Denver's spacing and cutters punish every rotation. The Nuggets also get a day off between New Orleans and the desert, so rest isn't an excuse here. The tape says Denver and the price at 4.5 doesn't give the road favorite enough credit, so I'll hold the spread at -110 rather than the -180 moneyline.
Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns· Fri, Oct 30 · 10:00 PM ETLou has Denver to win and Film Room has Denver to cover, so the desk has already crowned the Nuggets in Phoenix. That consensus is exactly what makes the Suns at +150 interesting, because a home team at a modest 4.5 is a coin flip with a discount attached. When Lou and Film Room agree, I'm on the other side.
The Mile High Line
